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SALFORD UNIVERSITY ‘EXPERTS’ DON’T GIVE LABOUR PARTY A SNIFF IN GENERAL ELECTION
 

Star date: 18th April 2017

AS 'SELFISH'...'RUTHLESS'...THERESA MAY CALLS ELECTION, SALFORD UNI PROFESSORS PREDICT LOW TURNOUT, LABOUR LOSSES, LIB DEM GAINS

As Greater Manchester voters are still coming to terms with the GM Mayor Election on May 4th, today Theresa May has called a General Election on June 8th.

Four 'politics and business experts' at the University of Salford have given their reactions, which include a prediction that the Labour Party will get "fewer than 200 seats", that "only the Lib Dem vote could upset the apple cart", and that turnout could possibly fall "below the 59.4 per cent of 2001"...and a slating of "ruthless", "opportunistic" "selfish" Tories

See full reactions here...


With people in Greater Manchester still trying to get their heads around the unwanted and uncalled for election for a Greater Manchester Mayor on May 4th, today Theresa May called a General Election on June 8th, which still has to be ratified by Parliament but looks set to go ahead.

The General Election is a complete U-turn by the Tories, after stating that there wouldn't be an election until 2020, and University of Salford 'politics and business experts' have been giving their reactions...

Dr Ben Williams, a tutor in Politics and Political Theory, argues that Prime Minister Theresa May and the Tories, with opinion polls hinting at a 21-point lead over Labour, "ultimately appear to be acting in a ruthless and opportunistic manner...

"They may never have better circumstances in which to secure a firm grip on power, and at the same time cause the Labour Party significant and long-term damage when it appears to be at its weakest and most divided point under a struggling leader" he adds "On this basis, this decision could be seen as one driven by selfish party interests rather than national ones."

Professor Karl Dayson, Director of Politics and Contemporary History at Salford Uni, insists that "May will be seeking to replicate Tony Blair's achievement of 1997 with over 400 seats and a majority of 178. This seems entirely possible given current polling".

Dayson adds that the Labour Party "has no clear message on the key issue of the day – Brexit – and has a leader unable to communicate and connect with the public...They are reliant on their core voters' cultural and economic commitment to Labour. This will save them from being wiped out, but not from getting fewer than 200 seats.

"General Election campaigns rarely change the underlying fundamentals, so I would expect a Conservative majority in excess of 150 seats and Labour reduced to less than 200 MPs" he adds "Only the Lib Dem vote could upset the apple cart and that depends on the election turning into a re-run of the referendum. The clarity of their position means they are well positioned to benefit from any 'Remain' voter backlash.

"A sense of fatigue among the public could intensify, and having been through the Scottish independent vote in 2014, the General Election in 2015, EU referendum in 2016 and now another general election in 2017" he decides "I suspect this will suppress turnout possibly below the 59.4 per cent of 2001."

Meanwhile, Dr Gordon Fletcher, Business and Retail expert at the Uni, is staying pretty much on the fence... "May's gamble is a straightforward one" he says "If the Conservatives win with an increased majority the ability to pursue their own agenda around Brexit, the NHS and even tougher economic policies is cleared.

"If the tactic does not succeed the election will almost certainly produce a complex coalition that will create new uncertainties for business, the process of Brexit and at least four years of ever more complex foreign relations with the US" he adds.

Dr Muhammad Amjad, expert in International Strategy at the Uni, argues that the snap General Election "opens up the black box, whether Brexit will actually happen and whether the public sentiment is still in favour of a hard Brexit.

"In the longer term context, it is a correct decision so that the Government ticks all the boxes of public confidence and Parliamentary strength to enable strong, and singular minded Brexit that is also implementable across all aspects of trade, immigration, and cross border relationships" he adds "A right decision, albeit a little late!"

Are these 'politics and business experts' correct? One thing that the Salford Star will predict is that the Labour Party will definitely retain all three of its MPs in Salford. But that doesn't really matter in the scheme of things – all General Elections come down to the few dozen swing seats in middle England. 

Meanwhile the Greater Manchester Mayor election struggles on...

Salford lad wrote
at 3:11:06 AM on Saturday, April 22, 2017
Felse your analysis is flawed. The people of Salford are not that clever or discerning, we only have to look at our current council to see that they would vote for a Clown provided it was Labour!
 
Straight talking Steve wrote
at 11:41:31 PM on Thursday, April 20, 2017
Dear Mr Felse, Unfortunatly for you UKIP is now not relevant, i voted ukip at the last general election but i won't be doing so this time, WHY???? Because they have served there purpose we had a vote now i trust the government to deliver on it. Bye Bye Farage and Felse you have done as we told you too, now please fuck off you back under your self centred power grabbing stones, we used you for our own gain. Joe Public 1 UKIP power hungy wannabees 0
 
Mark wrote
at 1:29:22 PM on Thursday, April 20, 2017
Felse go and crawl back under your rock and take your dying, pointless UKIP with you
 
Michael James Felse wrote
at 12:37:31 PM on Thursday, April 20, 2017
Sorry to teach a Professor, but the maths are as follows. Labour down 10 points since 2015 General Election translate to 30% drop in their vote. In Salford the Labour drop will be -6400. Worsley will see Labour drop by -5580. These voters are unlikely to vote Conservative. But adding these to UKIP of 2015 sees UKIP take Worsley and Eccles. Whereas it sees UKIP needing a 1% increase in voter turnout from 2015 none voters to tactically add to those disaffected Labour ones, putting UKIP in as MP for Salford and Eccles. Never been any better time to tell Labour where to get off and make Brexit live.
 
Undecided wrote
at 3:01:11 PM on Wednesday, April 19, 2017
If Dr Ben Williams can't grasp how politics work then he shouldn't be teaching the subject, politics is about grasping every opportunity to better your position for the greater good of your cause, it's a basic fundamental. It ain't ruthless it's politics mate, forget the voters they don't matter to any party the party is the matter and that's it. Personally i don't know who to vote for but i can tell you now it will not be 'Jezza' and his anarchist clown mates.
 
Conor wrote
at 12:46:39 PM on Wednesday, April 19, 2017
I agree with every word of Alice...Good to see the word experts in inverted commas in the story. After all 'we've all heard enough from them' and after the election of 2015, Brexit and Trump why do we think anyone has a crystal ball? To me this election is simple. Stop the Tories and that means voting...
 
Gareth L wrote
at 12:46:25 PM on Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Re Alice's comments. The problem being with this caring society that the Labour leader wants is that will further marginalise the majority. Jeremy C and his Social Justice Warrior friends on the far left believe in a dream world utopia and anyone who opposes this is labelled as a racist, misogynist etc. I haven't got a clue who I will vote for but it will not be Labour with him in charge.
 
Alice wrote
at 1:00:41 AM on Wednesday, April 19, 2017
If you are a reader of this paper you will know about all the austerity cuts handed down from the Tory Government. You might be someone who has been effected by them. You will certainly know about the financial difficulties of the NHS, the stress in social care, the shortage of affordable housing and the cuts in school budgets. You may be working for minimum wage or on PIP. So why vote for more of this. The Tories are set on unpicking the welfare state and passing as much of it as they can over to the private sector. This election is an opportunity to stop all this happening and to vote for a more civilised, caring society. It's more than Brexit; it's about the sort of country you want to live in.
 
Salford lad wrote
at 1:00:28 AM on Wednesday, April 19, 2017
As Real Dalford says three words JEzza you can't !
 
The end wrote
at 1:57:56 PM on Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Real Salford , #notacatinhellschance.
 
Real Salford wrote
at 9:15:41 AM on Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Do these so-called experts get out much ? Or do they just sit in their dusty old offices all day ? Have they been to any of the huge rabble rousing JC gigs ? Were they at The Lowry in summer 2016 for the #JC4PM event where Jezza launched #PeoplePoweredPolitics ? All I can say is three words! #JezWeCan
 
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