A very grim picture was painted at the Greater Manchester Leaders' press conference this afternoon, with the normally optimistic Health Lead, Richard Leese, opening with a dire warning...
"If our hospital system does not fall over in the next couple of weeks then we will have done well" he said "I cannot understate the amount of pressure that the system is now under."
Leese explained that by 'falling over' he didn't just mean operations being cancelled but "people stuck in ambulances, stuck on trolleys, and there is a real risk of that happening over the next few weeks..."
He showed the usual slides with the rates of cases up to 1st January but stressed that these were now out of date as the "world has changed quite dramatically".
Regionally, the weekly rate of increase in prevalence of the infection was 30% three weeks ago, which went up to 50% two weeks ago and now stands at 70%, with approximately 30% of those cases being the new strain of virus..."It really has taken off in a way that was unprecedented" said Leese.
While care home cases of COVID-19 are decreasing (2.1% on 29th Dec, to 1.9% 5th January), the GM Health Lead explained that there has been a "phenomenal change" in the position of hospitals in the region.
The number of COVID-19 patients admitted to Greater Manchester hospitals was 80 on Monday and 100 yesterday, with the expectation that it will be around 120 per day by the beginning of next week.
Pre-Christmas there were 40 to 50 spare COVID intensive care, or ICU, beds, in the system; there are now 19, from a total of 250 ICU beds, including 23 surge beds. There are also 36 Nightingale beds available of which 25 are occupied by patients needing less urgent attention. Staffing is an issue with over 10% of health staff currently absent.
While Leese stressed that vaccinations are not a 'magic bullet' – "it doesn't stop people transmitting, it doesn't stop people contracting the virus" – they do reduce virus symptoms which in turn reduces the pressure on hospitals.
43,000 people have currently been vaccinated in Greater Manchester but there are 556,000 people in the top four categories to be vaccinated by the Government target of mid-February – to meet it, 90,000 people a week need to be vaccinated..."We shouldn't underestimate the scale of the task" said Leese, announcing that there would be 78 vaccination sites in Greater Manchester by next week, with the Etihad Stadium set to be the regional mass vaccination centre.
Leese stressed the seriousness of the situation, underlining the fact that only people's behaviour could stop the virus, except that on New Year's Eve, Greater Manchester Police officers attended over 1,000 house parties that were breaking regulations.
There were also 1,500 reports to GMP concerning COVID related incidents, while 105 Fixed Penalty Notices were issued on New Year's Eve alone, with 185 more over the last week.
Leese slated "people being stupid and selfish in their behaviour...putting lives at risk"...adding that it was not their lives but older relatives and friends...
To emphasise the point, he relayed statistics showing that between 51% and 52% of all COVID-19 deaths in Greater Manchester were in the over-80 age group; just over 40% of deaths have been in the 60-80 age group; 7.5% in the 40 to 60 age group, and under 1% in the under 40 year olds.
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
(3).jpeg)
.png)
(1).JPG)
