Star date: 26th November 2020

AS COUNTRY SEES RISE IN INFECTIONS, GREATER MANCHESTER SEES 45% REDUCTION

Salford has 73 new coronavirus cases as the seven day average rate of cases has decreased to 275.5. Last week it was 454. Indeed, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham produced figures yesterday which showed that infections in Greater Manchester had reduced by 45% over the last two weeks, more than anywhere else in England.

Even though virus rates in Greater Manchester are plummeting, the rates are still high and the GM Mayor believes that "more likely than not, it will be Tier 3" after the lockdown on 2nd December. He called for a review in two weeks.

Full details here...

Salford has 73 new coronavirus cases, up from the previous day's 71, bringing the cumulative total to 13,078. While the daily case numbers rose slightly, the dramatic fall in cases overall continues. The seven day average of cases has decreased from 800 to 713, as has the seven day rate per 100,000 population which fell from 309.1 to 275.5.

Elsewhere in Greater Manchester, all boroughs continue to see a slight drop in seven day totals, albeit at a high rate. Cases in Manchester during the latest seven day data period were 1,472 (down from 1,572), with a rate of 266.3 (down from 284.3), followed by Bolton with 951 (down from 977), with a rate of 330.7 (down from 339.8), and Oldham 956 (down from 995), with a rate of 403.2 (down from 419.6 ).

Wigan has 1,046 (down from 1,085), with a rate of 318.3 (down from 330.1), Tameside 602 (down from 639), with a rate of 265.8 (down from 282.1), Rochdale 829 (down from 910), with a rate of 372.7 (down from 409.2), Stockport 647 (down from 682), with a rate of 220.5 (down from 232.4), Bury 629 (down from 661), with a rate of 329.3 (down from 346.1) and Trafford 452 (down from 508), with a rate of 190.4 (down from 214).

There have been three new virus-related deaths announced by Salford Royal Hospital.

At yesterday's weekly GM Mayor press conference, Andy Burnham produced a table showing that cases in Greater Manchester reduced by 45% between 6th and 20th November, while other regions saw either an increase (London +17%, South East +19%, East of England +17%) or a smaller decrease (Yorkshire and the Humber -30% , North East -11%). The England average was a decrease of 13% (see graphic).

The Mayor then added a table (see graphic) showing the Government's five key indicators being used in deciding which tier regions go into. On case detection rates alone, Greater Manchester, at 291.7, is way above the England average of 217.6. On case detection in the over 60s, the region is also way above the England average of 172.9, with a rate of 262.7. The positivity rate in Greater Manchester, at 11.6%, is also above the England average of 8.9%.

The other indicator is the pressure on the NHS, and in Greater Manchester weekly COVID-19 admissions to hospitals and in-patient diagnosis have fallen from 801 on 16th November to 632 on 23rd November, while the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care beds has fallen from 160 on 17th November, to 139 on 24th November. The number of those COVID-19 patients in non-intensive care beds has also fallen from 1,184 to 1036.

"We can now begin to call a reduction in pressure in our hospitals" said Burnham "...There are modest reductions and the number of patients in hospitals remains high, so there is no room for complacency, and I'm sure for NHS staff on the front line it won't feel as though the pressure has abated; it's still a very challenging situation."

As far as the Government tiers are concerned, while Burnham described the situation in Greater Manchester as "A very significant downward trend", he acknowledged that the cases are still "high-ish"...

"We don't know what tier we will be in, that has still not been communicated to us" he added "I think it's fair to say that we are heading at some speed to the Tier 3/Tier 2 borderline given the figures we are showing.

"It's a very different picture if you have high numbers on a rapidly falling trend than it is if you've got slightly lower numbers but on a rapidly rising trend" he explained "That said, I think it's more likely than not that the Government will put us in Tier 3..."

However, Burnham added that if the decrease in rates and cases continues, "I would want to ask the Government for a serious review of Greater Manchester's position at the first review of the tiering arrangements, which is scheduled to take place in two weeks from now. The Government is saying it doesn't expect to make many changes at that point but at this rate of change Greater Manchester could be lower than some areas that would be in Tier 2."

The Government will announce which tier Greater Manchester and Salford is in later on today...

Update: Noon - Salford and Greater Manchester put into Tier 3 restrictions - see here